BITCOIN LIVE
DASHBOARD
Price Action
liveCurrent Market Read
CONSOLIDATION / CAUTION
ELEVATED CAUTION · Markup phase
Current evidence places the composite cycle risk at 45/100 (elevated caution). BTC trades above its 200-day moving average with bullish structure. Retail sentiment proxy reads 65/100 (Greed). Categories without a live data source are excluded from the score and lower model confidence. This is not a guarantee of future price movement.
Market Cycle Score
A high score (towards 10) means low cycle-top risk / early cycle maturity. A low score (towards 1) means extreme cycle-top risk. Underlying model: cycle risk 45/100 → display score 5.5/10.
Signal Table (core of dashboard)
| # | Signal | What to Watch | Top Warning Level | Current Read | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Price Structure Score 83/100 from SMA alignment and swing structure. ATR 2.8%. | Blow-off move / vertical trend | Parabolic breakout above 200 SMA | 17% vs 200 SMA | CAUTION OKX Market Data |
| 2 | Spot ETF Flows No licensed spot-ETF flow feed is configured. Add an ETF flow provider key to activate this signal; it is currently excluded from the composite model. | Sustained institutional spot demand | Large persistent outflows | Data unavailable | UNAVAILABLE ETF flow provider (not configured) |
| 3 | Funding Rates Latest perpetual funding settlement ranked against the trailing 500 settlements rather than a single fixed threshold. | Overheated longs | Percentile > 85 | Data unavailable | UNAVAILABLE Binance USD-M Futures |
| 4 | Open Interest Open interest compared with its 30-day distribution plus 7-day acceleration. Rising OI on flat price is treated as leverage buildup. | Leverage buildup | OI percentile > 85 | Data unavailable | UNAVAILABLE Binance USD-M Futures |
| 5 | Futures Premium / Basis ((quarterly future / spot) - 1) × (365 / days to expiry) × 100, using the current-quarter contract. | Excessive bullish basis | Annualised basis > 20% | Data unavailable | UNAVAILABLE Binance USD-M Futures |
| 6 | MVRV Z-Score (Market cap − Realized cap) / standard deviation of market cap, published daily from realized-cap data by bitcoin-data.com. No API key required. | Valuation overheating | Z-Score > 7 (historic top zone) | 0.82 | BULLISH bitcoin-data.com (realized-cap derived) |
| 7 | NUPL NUPL = (Market cap − Realized cap) / Market cap, taken from the same keyless realized-cap dataset. ETH has no equivalent free feed and stays unavailable. | Euphoria | NUPL > 0.75 (euphoria zone) | 0.317 (Optimism / Anxiety) | HEALTHY bitcoin-data.com (realized-cap derived) |
| 8 | Retail Mania Composite sentiment proxy (Fear & Greed: volatility, momentum, social, dominance). Search-trend and app-ranking inputs are not connected, so confidence is partial. | Euphoric crowd behaviour | Sentiment > 85 | 65 Greed | CAUTION Alternative.me Fear & Greed |
| 9 | Exchange Netflows Exchange wallet flow aggregation requires an on-chain provider. Single-day flows are never treated as a signal by design. | Coins moving to / from exchanges | Heavy sustained inflows | Data unavailable | UNAVAILABLE On-chain provider (not configured) |
| 10 | Liquidation / Leverage Risk 0.35 funding percentile + 0.30 OI percentile + 0.20 OI acceleration + 0.15 basis, renormalised over available inputs. | Crowded one-sided leverage | Funding + OI percentiles both extreme | Data unavailable | UNAVAILABLE Binance USD-M Futures |
- 1Price StructureCAUTION
- Current read
- 17% vs 200 SMA
- Warning level
- Parabolic breakout above 200 SMA
Score 83/100 from SMA alignment and swing structure. ATR 2.8%.
- 2Spot ETF FlowsUNAVAILABLE
- Current read
- Data unavailable
- Warning level
- Large persistent outflows
No licensed spot-ETF flow feed is configured. Add an ETF flow provider key to activate this signal; it is currently excluded from the composite model.
- 3Funding RatesUNAVAILABLE
- Current read
- Data unavailable
- Warning level
- Percentile > 85
Latest perpetual funding settlement ranked against the trailing 500 settlements rather than a single fixed threshold.
- 4Open InterestUNAVAILABLE
- Current read
- Data unavailable
- Warning level
- OI percentile > 85
Open interest compared with its 30-day distribution plus 7-day acceleration. Rising OI on flat price is treated as leverage buildup.
- 5Futures Premium / BasisUNAVAILABLE
- Current read
- Data unavailable
- Warning level
- Annualised basis > 20%
((quarterly future / spot) - 1) × (365 / days to expiry) × 100, using the current-quarter contract.
- 6MVRV Z-ScoreBULLISH
- Current read
- 0.82
- Warning level
- Z-Score > 7 (historic top zone)
(Market cap − Realized cap) / standard deviation of market cap, published daily from realized-cap data by bitcoin-data.com. No API key required.
- 7NUPLHEALTHY
- Current read
- 0.317 (Optimism / Anxiety)
- Warning level
- NUPL > 0.75 (euphoria zone)
NUPL = (Market cap − Realized cap) / Market cap, taken from the same keyless realized-cap dataset. ETH has no equivalent free feed and stays unavailable.
- 8Retail ManiaCAUTION
- Current read
- 65 Greed
- Warning level
- Sentiment > 85
Composite sentiment proxy (Fear & Greed: volatility, momentum, social, dominance). Search-trend and app-ranking inputs are not connected, so confidence is partial.
- 9Exchange NetflowsUNAVAILABLE
- Current read
- Data unavailable
- Warning level
- Heavy sustained inflows
Exchange wallet flow aggregation requires an on-chain provider. Single-day flows are never treated as a signal by design.
- 10Liquidation / Leverage RiskUNAVAILABLE
- Current read
- Data unavailable
- Warning level
- Funding + OI percentiles both extreme
0.35 funding percentile + 0.30 OI percentile + 0.20 OI acceleration + 0.15 basis, renormalised over available inputs.
ETF / Derivatives Snapshot
Top Alert Rules
- No parabolic price acceleration (stretch vs 200 SMA below caution level)
- Funding inside its historical normal range
- Retail sentiment not euphoric
- Open interest expanding faster than price
- Trend structure has weakened to neutral or worse
- Model confidence reduced by unavailable data sources
- Parabolic acceleration above the 200-day moving average
- Extreme funding percentile (crowded longs)
- Extreme greed in retail sentiment proxy
- Open interest at the top of its 30-day distribution
Cycle Map
Marker position is derived from the composite cycle risk score (45/100) with model confidence 65%. Phase boundaries are configurable in config.ts and are an interpretation of current conditions, not a forecast.
History
Structural risk proxy (0-100)
Reproducible proxy from stretch above the 200 SMA plus 30-day acceleration. Not the full composite model, which needs point-in-time derivatives history.
Sentiment proxy (0-100)
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index, 90 days.
Key Takeaways
- ✓BTC is holding above its 200-day moving average ($69,654), keeping the long-term trend intact.
- ✓Nearest algorithmic support sits at $80,636 with resistance at $82,842 (level confidence 67%).
- ✓Retail sentiment reads 65/100 (Greed), short of euphoric territory.
- ✓On-chain valuation shows an MVRV Z-Score of 0.82 and NUPL of 0.317, below the historic top-risk zone.
- ✓Spot ETF net flows remain unavailable (no keyless feed exists), so the composite score carries reduced confidence and no cycle-top conclusion is asserted.